Cautious Optimism for the US Markets

Today wound up being another fairly good day in the markets, and certainly the markets have been enjoying some fairly nice runups of late. And while there are definitely positive signs that the economy may slowly be in the beginning stages of coming out of the doldrums, I am still fairly cautious about the moves I make in the markets, but also optimistic going forward that certain stocks will see some nice gains.

Part of the activity in the markets was due to the start of a two-day meeting by the Feds which, for all intents and purposes appears that they will not make any immediate changes, which is positive news overall. It willalso be interesting see what the Fed will have to say about some of the predictions they made in March when they last met in which they said they saw GDP growth around 2.6% through 2013, and a nearly 1 point increase in 2014 to 3.2%. In March the Fed also suggested that unemployment numbers would continue to improve, dropping to 7.4% by the end of 2013, and down to 6.9% by 2014. I think that if the Fed reaffirms these figures, or show better numbers for GDP growth projections and unemployment figures, obviously this will cause the markets to continue to rally. If the Fed adjust these numbers to the negative, it may throw a bit of uncertainty in the markets and cause stocks to go lower. My strong suspicion is that the Fed will not adjust their figures, but rather will state that they are on track to meet these projections they made back in March. That is still a positive, to my mind, and I think the markets will react positively to that news.

I also think that, for the time being, the Fed will maintain monthly purchases of $85 billion worth of bonds. They won't start scaling this back, I believe, until some of the projected figures begin to get closer to becoming fact. Bernanke, I think, tends to be a bit cautious about acting too soon. Although a scaling back of these bond purchases would certainly be a strong signal for the economy, and the markets could see gains as a result.

Stocks I like right now are Ford Motor Company (F), Dunkin Brands Group (DNKN), Target (TGT), and Masco Corp. (MAS).

I picked Ford due to what I perceive as better auto sales figures due to improving employment, an uptick in refinancing of mortgages which may open some money up to potential buyers, and aging fleets which will need to be replaced sometime in the near future which Ford could be a beneficiary of. Dunkin Brands Group was picked due to a good earnings cycle, and strong expansion of their business and upgrading of stores. Dunkin is making a strong push for market share, and I think they have a good chance of getting some of it. Target is my choice because consumer confidence is up slightly, and because I think Target is considered by many consumers as an upgrade to other discount players like Dollar Tree and Walmart. If economic conditions improve, and employment situations improve, consumers may well treat themselves to shopping up at Target over the other discounters. Plus, their stores look great. Masco Corp. is a play on the nearly 7% uptick in new housing starts recently reported, and improving home sales overall. When people buy new or existing homes, they tend to want to spruce things up a bit, and Masco Corp. is definitely a company who offers products new homeowners can turn to to help them to do this.

Will Lincoln ever offer a truck again?

Content Is King of the Internet

Ford Motor Cpmpany: An American Gem

HubPages Makes a Breakfastpop Pop Out

Don't get me wrong when I say that HubPages over the past couple of years has taken on far too much editorial control at their site, and it has irked more than just a few writers. I was one of them a while back as I wrote my farewell hub to my faithful readers, Goodbye HubPages sometime back in October of 2011.

HubPages is not a bad site to write for. It's just not as easy as it used to be to write content that you want without a lot of added scrutiny by the site moderators.

A couple of things that stood out for me were simple references that I made to the Boston Beer Company as I was simply saying that it was the last real American company left to brew beer. That hub it turned out was cited as promoting drinking. Another hub was simply an anecdote about the prospects of winning the lottery, and was primarily meant to be somewhat humurous in nature. This hub was cited as promoting gambling.

Neither of which were true in the context of my hubs. I eventually reposted the latter hub here on the Springboard, Winning the Lottery: The Dream of the Big Win.

If the moderators would have actually read the hubs, the fact that neither were really promoting anything would have been all too clear. Even after I wrote them citing my concerns, it was clear that they did not bother to read a word of what I'd posted. Worst of all I got a nasty bit of a response back from them which I talked about in a follow-up hub titled, On HubPages—October 21, 2011, wherein they said, "Like most websites, there are many topics which are protected under free speech that are not permitted on websites like HubPages. Please feel free to publish any content that violates HubPages Terms of Use elsewhere. Let us know if you have any questions."

That was the real stab, and those words hung on me like weighted chains hooked to my nipples. Please feel free to publish any content that violates HubPages Terms of Use elsewhere. Thanks for nothing, guys. Really?

To date my hubs have received over 72,000 views, and these figures do not count any hubs I deleted which became irrelevant due to time decay of the material. It doesn't make me the Stephen King of HubPages, but I am sure my 72,000 plus views certainly helped the site to make a few bucks over the years.

Which brings me to Breakfastpop who is, for all intents and purposes, a conservative blogger at HubPages. To date she has written around 913 hubs, and has earned the following of somewhere around 762 other hubbers, and who also gets read by many people outside the site who are not even members. Her blogs, as I would classify them, always get quite a few comments, and I would think her total views would blow mine clear out of the water.

And despite that, she recently announced she will be reducing her activity on the site citing mainly that HubPages has "institued changes that seem to be anti-writer." And she is spot on when she makes this comment. When I wrote Goodbye HubPages I said, "If we are to truly call ourselves writers then no writer I have ever spoken to has ever been for censorship in any form. This is censorship if you ask me." Breakfastpop went on to say, "This site is no longer a haven for writers who wish to express themselves freely and creatively."

This becomes especially true when one takes into consideration that the site touts itself as a site for writers, and is essentially a means to self publish your work. I understand why any site of this nature would want to be careful about some of its content simply because any content that might be negative could impact their entire site overall. But there is a big difference between inappropriate content and simple creative and free thinking by writers who provide it. And again, if the site wants to run itself more like a magazine and filter some of the content, then they must take the time to actually read the content that is deemed to be objectionable, substandard, or the quality of the content simply be determined by "word requirements, graphs, charts and polls" as Breakfastpop also rightly pointed out.

It is also true that many quality writers have left the site for the very reasons that I stated, along with Breakfastpop's statements as to her reasoning for slowing down her activity. What will they have left if the good writer's go is the question I have posed more than once? When you drive away those who actually make a positive contribution to the site, what is left? What's more, many times HubPages has said that they are simply going along with the TOS of Google Adsense. Yet not once have I ever had any notices of violating Adsense's TOS, even when I have published exactly the same material which was deemed a violation of HubPages TOS on one of my blogs, all of which are directly owned by Google.

One thing I have long said in looking into the actions of the moderators and owners of what is supposed to be a site for writers, is that none of these moderators or owners have a clue about the importance of freedom of speech that is inherent in anyone who actually considers themselves to be a writer, and as being a former editor involved in the publishing of an online monthly fiction horror magazine, editor of a horror fiction anthology, and having associations with other editors and writers like Mort Castle, Richard Chizmar of Cemetery Dance, T.M. Wright, Peter Straub, Michael Laimo (who recently had one of his books turned into a movie on Chiller), and former Dorchester Publishing Leisure Horror books editor Don D'Auria, I know what it means to have editorial control over content. Nothing was published, nor rejected, without first reading the material. That's how you deal with writers. No programming algorithm can ever replace that, and non writers/editors should not have a thing to do with editorial control. Instead this task should be delegated to those who know what they are doing.

The Failure of an American President

I have no desire at all for a president to fail. But when a president does in fact fail, I think it is all too imperative that the American people recognize this, despite any party affliliations one may have, or any other biases for that matter. To do anything else is to the detriment of the institution of the presidency of the United States, and to the country itself.

I think in the case of president Barack Obama, his failure to the American people is all too obvious, and on many levels. But also obvious is that part of the reason that the president has managed to escape his own failures is that a large population of Americans are simply disengaged from the issues that rule the day. Even worse, I think the pool of these disengaged Americans, whom are otherwise often referred to as the uninformed voter, is a growing pool.

How else could president Barack Obama have been reelected but without the support of uninformed voters?

During his presidency gas prices doubled, and median household income was slashed by a whopping $4,000 a year. Not only that, but unemployment rates were sustained above 8% for a stubborn 40 months or so. And something I find interesting that doesn't seem to get a lot of attention is a statement made by Congressman Betty Sutton that in 2010, on average, 23 manufacturing facilities were permanently shuttered every single day.

The latter I find particularly interesting considering democrats have always been on the side of American labor and jobs. Moreover, manufacturing jobs are the bread and butter of the middle class, and provide good paying jobs to people who perhaps have less opportunity to go to college—in other words, the working class that democrats have always touted being on the side of obviously received no benefit whatsoever from the Obama administration during his first term in office when so many promises were made that he would fix a broken economy, and put hard working middle class America back to work.

Back to work where would be a good question since few businesses were hiring, and any new businesses in the green economy that Barack Obama claimed would provide new jobs with great pay for struggling American workers mostly have all gone bankrupt.

The green economy has produced no real new jobs for anyone, and while unemployment numbers may be showing some indication of improving, we are not even close to replacing the total of lost jobs since the beginning and end of the Great Recession.

And then of course, there was Benghazi, which I think would have been a terrible blow to any president on any side of the aisle seeking reelection. Four Americans died. And it is clear that the Obama administration lied to the American people about what happened. Moreover, the failure by the Administration to keep Americans safe in regions where there were obvious threats to safety, was all but ignored by the people who helped to keep president Obama in the White House.

My point in all of this is that it is okay to give a shot to the new kid in town. Barack Obama came onto the scene almost out of nowhere and was able to connect with the American people, and brought great messages of hope and change, and made a promise to the American people that he would be the great leader in restoring the faith of the American people in their government. He was going to fix things and make life better for everyone. But he did none of these things. And it is not okay to fail to recognize this. It is not okay to overlook failures.

The people did not overlook the failures of Richard Nixon. Nor did they overlook the failures of Jimmy Carter. The American people got it. Something was wrong, and the American people were paying focused attention to the details. The American people on both sides of the aisle did not allow for excuses to be made.

Richard Nixon resigned, in part, because he knew that to do otherwise would damage the country, and he knew that to continue to serve in the office of the president was not in the best interest of the American people. And Jimmy Carter was not reelected because clearly no one was better off than they were when he took office.

As a result of uninformed voters and disengaged Americans, a president was allowed to slide past the radar, and allowed to perpetuate the course of failure, and this may prove a very difficult course to reverse. The impact on the American people and the American way of life has been severely compromised in my opinion, and while I am not suggesting doomsday has arrived, I think it can only get worse.

Now we have the IRS scandal, the AP scandal, and we still don't know what happened in Benghazi. Of course there was Fast and Furious. And the economy is still in the slowest recovery mode in history. Worst of all, the president has only increased his belief in the policies that have yet to be proven to have helped in any way.

Failure is not something to hope for at all. But it is also not something to be ignored.

Pirate Republic Seafood & Grill, Ft. Lauderdale

Recently the wife and I had an opportunity to visit the Pirate Republic Seafood & Grill, located in Ft. Lauderdale, on a recent trip to Florida, and I have to tell you that if you will be in the area anytime soon, this is definitely a place worth visiting. The service was exemplary, and the food was outstanding. Our bill was not outrageous either.

Being that the establishment resides in sunny Florida, the main eating area is of course set outside, and there are plenty of spaces available to dock your boat if making the trip via the water is your preference. They also have a dockside eating area, although we weren't able to take advantage of that on the day we went due to a bit of rain that had started.

The establishment has two bars. One downstairs in the main restaurant area, and one upstairs where they often have live entertainment. On the night we went they had a Blues Brothers act which was fantastic. If you hadn't have known it you'd have swore that John Belushi had risen from the dead to join with his old sidekick, Dan Ackroyd. The duo had a full backup band, and the show was very lively. Well worth it after our delicious meal.

And of course, the highlight was indeed the meal. I decided on the Anguilla dish and chose the catch of the day for my fish choice, which on this day was catfish. The filet was was sauteed with shrimp, and

included fresh tomatoes, onion, and garlic. It also was topped with fresh green peppercorns, spinach, and layered underneath was a helping of mashed potatoes. The combination of flavors really left me very happy. And the price for the dish was only $22. Very much worth it if you ask me.

My wife enjoyed the Kobe beef burger served up with sweet potato fries. This hamburger, which I did take a bite of, was one of the best burgers I've tasted in a long time. The beef was absolutely delicious, and the burger was served up arugula and a tangy Brazilian Catupiry cream cheese. The $18 price tag was not too much to ask at all considering how good this burger was.

For drinks I stuck with my favorite poison, a simple beer. I had a Yuengling Lager, and the wife had a Pirate Treasure. This drink is an amazing marriage of Bacardi Coconut Rum, Seven Tiki Spiced Rum, pineapple juice, orange juice, and grenadine. As much I am not one for sweeter drinks, this one really was a great drink, and my wife enjoyed it enough to actually order a second once we went up to the second bar upstairs for the Blues Brothers show.

This is a place we will certainly be revisiting on our next trip to Ft. Lauderdale, and I highly recommend it. The staff is friendly and attentive, and I was also very impressed that despite them having a very full house, we were immediately seated, and our food was served hot and fresh in a very short amount of time.

It is an eating experience to please the senses, and a delectable treat that will leave you full and very satisfied. I would rate this a very high 9 on a scale of one to ten, with ten being the best.

Unemployment Numbers May Drive Future Auto Sales

The unemployment numbers released today show some sign that just maybe we may be beginning to see a bit of a turnaround. Certainly the DOW Jones Industrial Average, and frankly all of the indices, have been on fire. The DOW has seen record highs.

This leads to one other thing we know. Auto sales have lagged both in the United States, and big time in Europe. All indicators point to a trend in the United States over the past 5-8 years that says that Americans in particular have been keeping their cars for longer periods of time.

When the economy stinks, who the heck can take the chance to buy a new car? Just drive what you have and run with it.

In fact, if you'd have invested in many of the auto parts companies like O'Reilly, for example, you'd have seen some pretty nice gains. People keeping their cars longer means they'll need parts to keep them running in tip top shape.

Which brings me back to the automakers. If and when, and I really think it is more a matter of when than if, the economy really starts to get some of its legs back, I think the very first thing the average American is going to do is replace their old car.

Sure, houses are nice, and the housing market has been having a pretty good run as well lately. But cars are still at the heart of every single American that drives. A new car is a treat. And if jobs numbers begin to improve, and people feel more secure in the jobs they have, and especially if the economy begins to provide less uncertainty as to where it's headed, Americans will park a shiny new car in their driveway.

It's a high ticket item, but it's not as high a ticket item as a house is. And the interest rates are still running relatively low, making any deal at the dealership even more enticing.

I am focusing on American automakers as well in this idea. I like Ford a lot. Mostly because Ford is the smaller of the Big Three US automakers, and because they have streamlined their business massively, and I think they have the most to gain with market share. Not to mention they are making some pretty nice cars.

Why American as well? I think there is a growing amount of interest in this country to buy American. We are beginning to see many more efforts by retailers to stock their shelves with American made goods. Walmart recently said it would add $50 billion over the next 10 years of American made goods. Big home improvement chains like Menards, which are all over the Midwest states, especially around Minnesota, Illinois, and Wisconsin, has been on a rampage stocking their stores with American made and regularly offering American made sale prices and incentives.

I just think that more Americans are becoming aware that in order to really seat this country back into a good economic situation, we are going to have to start putting factories back on line, and in turn Americans will have better employment choices in sectors of manufacturing, which historically paid good wages and benefits to the average American. The fact that you can have a good paying job without the need for a college degree is also a plus since more Americans working and making good money no matter their status means many more dollars will flow in the real economy, and ultimately into these American businesses.

Ford Motor Company is my top pick. But I think if you invest in any automaker right now, in 12-24 months, you'll see substantial gains. Maybe the dip in unemployment is just a short term fluke. Or it is something that signals a turnaround. Either way, I don't see this economic downturn as being a permanent thing, and like I said before, the very first treat when all is good will be a shiny new car.

And that's why I think the automakers are good buy right now.

Full disclosure: Jim Bauer currently has stock in the Ford Motor Company.